One Nation Stuns Major Parties

One Nation captured its first-ever lower house seat in Western Australia, flipping Labor’s stronghold of Secret Harbour on a massive swing that stunned both major parties.

Story Snapshot

One Nation’s Luke Herdegen led on primary and two-candidate-preferred counts, and major outlets called the race.
The Western Australian Electoral Commission confirmed the by-election process and Herdegen’s candidacy.
Reported swings were unusually large, signaling voter anger in a mortgage-belt seat.
Officials noted final certification follows the postal-vote deadline, but outlets reported a decisive result.

What Happened in Secret Harbour

On August 29, the outer suburban seat of Secret Harbour held a state by-election after a Labor minister resigned. The Western Australian Electoral Commission confirmed the timetable, nominations, and polling day, and later noted that the official declaration would follow the postal-vote deadline. The Commission’s candidate list showed Luke Herdegen running for One Nation. Media outlets reported Herdegen well ahead on the night and into the next day, with calls that he would be the next Member of the Legislative Assembly.

Australian Broadcasting Corporation results coverage showed One Nation’s primary vote near 39 percent with a swing of about 30 points. The West Australian and Nine reported similar figures and a clear lead on the two-candidate-preferred count above 53 percent. These live counts varied slightly across outlets as updates rolled in, but they all pointed to the same outcome: a historic lower house breakthrough for One Nation in Western Australia.

Why This Seat Flipped So Hard

Secret Harbour sits in Perth’s southern mortgage belt, where rising costs and housing strain hit hard. Analysts noted before polling that this mix favors protest votes against the major parties. Voters here work in trades, have lower university attainment, and often feel left out of decision-making. In that setting, One Nation’s message broke through, while Labor’s primary vote collapsed from past highs. The result looked more like a revolt than a close run contest.

The swing size matters. Swings above 15 percent are rare in modern elections. This race delivered reported double-digit hits to Labor and big gains for One Nation. That suggests frustration with how leaders handle everyday bills, housing access, and public services. It also reflects a wider pattern: when families feel squeezed and unheard, they punish whoever holds power, even in places long seen as “safe” for one party.

How Officials and Parties Framed the Outcome

The Western Australian Electoral Commission reminded the public that election-night figures are indicative and the formal result follows the postal-vote window. That is standard in Australian elections. Even so, major outlets called the seat for One Nation based on the size and direction of the count. That call matched the Commission’s confirmed process and candidate list, creating a clear chain of events despite the lag to certification.

Labor leaders argued the result reflected local dissatisfaction and messaging that “didn’t cut through.” Supporters of One Nation described it as a signal that working families are done waiting while costs rise. Media coverage leaned on terms like “historic victory” and “shockwaves,” which increased the national spotlight on a local revolt. Both reactions fit a familiar pattern when a minor party cracks a stronghold.

What This Signals Beyond One Suburb

This is one seat, but it points to a broader mood. In wealthy capitals and in struggling suburbs alike, many people think government serves insiders first. They see rising prices, scarce housing, and gridlock, while leaders trade blame. When that belief hardens, voters try new options. Secret Harbour shows how quickly that shift can happen when a campaign speaks to immediate pain in the household budget.

WA Liberal leader Basil Zempilas has defended his party’s Secret Harbour strategy, arguing Liberal preferences helped deliver One Nation its first lower house seat in the state. https://t.co/X0f5FzU0Jl

— The Greek Herald (@greek_herald) August 31, 2026

American readers will recognize the pattern. When families feel cornered by living costs and shut out by elites, they push back at the ballot box. In 2026, that energy spans left and right. Some blame global trade deals and high migration. Others blame weak services and vanishing paths to the middle class. In all cases, the shared thread is trust. Where trust thins, upsets grow. Secret Harbour is an Australian case study of that shared frustration.

What to Watch Next

Watch for the final declared count from the Western Australian Electoral Commission, including postal and preference details. Track whether other outer-suburban seats show similar swings. Look for changes in how Labor and the Liberal Party handle cost of living, housing, and services. Follow whether One Nation can repeat this result in areas without the same demographics. A single seat does not settle national politics, but it can mark the start of a trend.