New Jersey Could Become a Swing State

New Jersey, long considered a Democratic stronghold, teeters on the edge of becoming a swing state following the 2024 election.

At a Glance

Kamala Harris narrowly won New Jersey against Donald Trump, marking the closest Democratic win since 1992.
Republicans have gained registered voters in all 21 counties since 2020.
Passaic County, once heavily Democratic, showed a significant swing towards the GOP.
Some Republicans declare New Jersey a “swing state,” while Democrats dismiss the idea.
Analysts suggest more consecutive elections are needed to confirm any long-term trend.

A Blue State’s Red Shift

The 2024 presidential election has shaken the political landscape of New Jersey, a state that has consistently voted Democratic in presidential races since 1992. Vice President Kamala Harris managed to secure a victory in the Garden State, but the margin was uncomfortably close for Democrats, echoing the nail-biting finish of the 1992 election. This unexpected turn of events has sparked a heated debate about whether New Jersey is now or is on the cusp of becoming a swing state.

The Republican Party has made significant inroads in New Jersey, with GOP voter registrations increasing in all 21 counties since 2020. This shift is particularly evident in Passaic County, once a Democratic stronghold, where Donald Trump led Kamala Harris by over 6,500 votes. The upset victory of Republican Ed Durr over Democratic state Senate President Stephen Sweeney in a previous election further underscores the changing political dynamics in the state.

New Jersey might be a swing state now https://t.co/tr6b3CTZAa

— POLITICO (@politico) November 6, 2024

Republicans Make Note of Change

Emboldened by the election results, some Republican leaders are quick to declare a sea change in New Jersey’s political allegiance. U.S. Rep. Jeff Van Drew made a bold proclamation about the state’s new status on the national stage.

State Sen. Holly Schepisi echoed this sentiment, viewing the election results as a pushback against long-term Democratic control in the state. Republicans see this shift as an opportunity to capitalize on growing dissatisfaction with Democratic policies on issues such as the economy, immigration, and crime.

Democrats’ Reality Check

The close call has forced Democrats to confront some uncomfortable truths. State Sen. Vin Gopal acknowledged a “big messaging problem” on key issues that resonated with voters. However, not all Democrats are ready to concede a fundamental shift in the state’s political leanings. Sen. Raj Mukherji dismissed the notion of New Jersey turning red, viewing the election results as an anomaly rather than a trend.

Despite the Republican gains, Democrats still maintain a significant lead in registered voters. However, their numbers have decreased in 11 counties since 2020, a fact that cannot be ignored. Governor Phil Murphy, while asserting that New Jersey remains blue for presidential elections, warned against complacency within his party.

The Road Ahead

Political analysts urge caution in drawing long-term conclusions from a single election cycle. Ben Dworkin and Ashley Koning point out that New Jersey has a history of alternating between Democratic and Republican governors, suggesting that the state’s political identity is more complex than a simple red or blue label.

The upcoming gubernatorial election in New Jersey is now viewed as a critical indicator of the state’s political direction. It will serve as a litmus test for whether the 2024 results were an aberration or the beginning of a more permanent shift. As both parties gear up for future battles, one thing is clear: New Jersey’s political landscape is more dynamic and unpredictable than it has been in decades.

As the dust settles on the 2024 election, New Jersey finds itself at a political crossroads. While it may be premature to definitively label it a swing state, the narrowing margins and shifting voter registrations suggest that the Garden State’s political future is far from certain. Both parties will need to reassess their strategies and messaging as they navigate this new, more competitive landscape in the years to come.