Retirements Spell Uncertain Future for House in 2024

Retirements Spell Uncertain Future for House in 2024

( – New year retirements on Capitol Hill may be set to cause a dynamic shift in 2024, according to recent reports. So far, 23 Democrats and 12 Republicans in the House have announced they do not intend to run again, with more expected in January. Some Republicans and Democrats see the situation differently, with members of both parties expressing confidence that changes will be to their advantage.

According to NBC News, Jack Pandol of the National Republican Congressional Committee said the “political blast radius from congressional retirements has almost entirely blown back on House Democrats.” In contrast, Viet Shelton from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee said, “When House Republicans run for the retirement exits, they’re trashing their own party on the way out.”

The Cook Political Report suggests House of Representatives contests will comprise 170 safe Democrat seats, 190 solid GOP seats, 18 seats leaning Democrat and 12 leaning Republican. There are 13 competitive seats where Democrats have an advantage and seven similar seats on the GOP side. In the middle, there are 25 that are up for grabs by either party and will, therefore, be a focus in the 2024 elections, according to The CPR.

In the Senate, a CNN analysis suggests that GOP control could become a reality in 2024 as Democrats hold the most competitive seats – ones that could “flip” depending on the progress of likely GOP candidate Donald Trump. Republican strategists are already zoning in on seats in West Virginia, Montana, Nevada, and Michigan, while polls show Trump is gaining in those states.

The Presidential election will, of course, take political center stage in 2024, with Trump facing a string of criminal indictments and a lack of enthusiasm from Democrats about 81-year-old President Biden taking up residence in the Oval Office for another four years.

Surveys toward the end of 2023 show that a Trump-Biden rematch is likely. Nikki Haley has secured GOP second place in some polls but is considered too far behind to knock out Trump.

Copyright 2023,